Linda McMahon for Senate

Apr 29, 2010

“Of The Three Republicans, McMahon Has The Greatest Potential To Make This A Truly Competitive Race.”

Connecticut Senate: Can McMahon Topple Blumenthal?
Cook Political Report
Thursday, April 29, 2010

This was a very different race than it was just seven months ago when a number of Republicans were vying for their party’s nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, who by all measures looked as vulnerable as any incumbent up for re-election this year. Since then, Dodd announced he would not seek re-election and the GOP field winnowed. Perhaps the most significant difference, though, is the presence of a political newcomer who has become the frontrunner for the nomination.

Today, the Republican primary consists of that newcomer, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Rep. Rob Simmons and financial services executive Peter Schiff. The early conventional wisdom was that the nomination would come down to a race between Simmons and wealthy businessman and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley. Foley, though, decided to run for Governor instead, and McMahon has more than filled the void.

McMahon has never sought political office, though she served on the state’s Board of Education. While many neophyte candidates, particularly those who spent their professional lives in business, struggle in the role of political candidate, McMahon has made the transition relatively seamlessly. She has a compelling personal narrative, and is a strong retail campaigner who connects well with voters. It helps that she has vowed to finance the campaign with personal funds, committing between $30 million and $50 million to the race. She accepts contributions of $100 or less through her web site. By personally funding her campaign, McMahon is free to spend her time meeting voters.

McMahon’s resources also allowed her to go on the air early with ads in which she outlined the reasons she is running for the Senate: that federal spending and the deficit have spiraled out of control and the Senate needs more business savvy members who can address these issues. She has also aired biographical ads, including one narrated by her daughter.

In the ad, Stephanie McMahon says, “Growing up in a small town, Linda McMahon trained to become a teacher. But life had other plans. She married Vince, her high school sweetheart and together they would change the world of entertainment. But the journey wasn’t smooth. They lost everything, even their home. Declaring bankruptcy when Linda was pregnant with their second child. But they started over; building a business that became World Wrestling Entertainment. With Linda as CEO, WWE’s soap opera popularity grew and over 500 people in Connecticut found new jobs. Linda also served our community through the Make-A-Wish foundation, USO and other charities. And now she’s running for the United States Senate because today, the American dream is in real danger. People call Linda McMahon a CEO, job creator, business leader, but I just call her mom.”

Simmons, who served three terms in Congress before losing re-election in 2006, was considered one of the House Republican Caucus’ most moderate members. In this race, though, he has embraced the causes of the Tea Party movement, particularly on fiscal responsibility. Once Foley left the race, Simmons was widely viewed as the frontrunner, but McMahon has now overtaken him.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll (March 9-15 of 1,451 registered voters and a primary sample of 387 registered Republicans), McMahon had a 10-point lead over Simmons, 44 percent to 34 percent with Schiff taking 9 percent.

While McMahon doesn’t spend much time talking about Simmons, the Simmons campaign attacks McMahon almost daily. Since she doesn’t have a voting record, Simmons is forced to run against professional wrestling, calling it violent and demeaning to women. The campaign frequently brings up the issue of steroid use by professional wrestlers in an effort to hold McMahon accountable for it. The campaign has even criticized McMahon for naming her boat Sexy Bitch, labeling it offensive. Simmons has not yet been on the air, so the attacks haven’t gained much traction, although they have generated newspaper stories and columns that are generally anti-wrestling. When Simmons does begin his television advertising, professional wrestling will undoubtedly be a major theme, but it remains to be seen whether it gains significantly more traction at that point.

Simmons started the race as a strong fundraiser, but has struggled more recently. In 2009, he raised $753,019 in the second quarter, his first full quarter of fundraising, $957,908 in the third quarter, and $634,000 in the fourth quarter. He raised $543,000 in the first quarter of this year. As of March 31, he had just over $1.4 million in the bank. McMahon has put $14 million into the race so far, finishing the first quarter with $4.3 million on hand.

Schiff, who is running a distant third in the race, has raised $2.55 million for the cycle, including $550,000 of own money. As of March 31, he had over $1.2 million in the bank. It was recently reported that he was forced to refund $120,000 in excess contributions to donors, which suggests that perhaps his campaign is not well organized. Schiff is running as a fiscal conservative. He tells voters that he first predicted the collapse of the financial services market and says that he wants to be more than just a Senator from Connecticut but a Senator for the nation, something that may not sit well with voters. He has aired television spots which have increased his name recognition and produced some small movement in the polls. It’s unclear how much money Schiff can or is willing to invest in the race, but it’s unlikely that he can compete with McMahon dollar for dollar.

The Republican state convention is May 22, but it is unlikely to change the trajectory of the race or winnow the field. The primary is August 10.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who faces just nominal opposition for the nomination. Blumenthal is in his fourth term as Attorney General and has stratospheric poll numbers. According to the March Quinnipiac poll, his job ratings were 79-percent approve to 13-percent disapprove and his favorable/unfavorable ratings were 70 percent to 18 percent. These numbers alone have led many observers to write off Republicans’ chances here. We’re not convinced that’s true, assuming, of course, that McMahon is the nominee.

Blumenthal has never really had a tough race. As a result, he has a 20-year record that’s never really been combed through. It’s a pretty good bet that Republicans are doing that now. He has already demonstrated some hints of weakness on the campaign trail. Blumenthal has said that as Attorney General he never accepted contributions from special interests, especially political action committees. On his first quarter FEC report, though, he reported $223,000 in contributions from PACs. He brushed aside questions about the PAC money by saying that he never said he wouldn’t accept such contributions as a Senate candidate, a response that came off as a little disingenuous. He has also gotten some criticism for saying in a debate that lawsuits create jobs, a statement he tried to walk back in a debate earlier this month.

The first quarter marked Blumenthal’s first in the race. He raised $1.8 million, and had $1.6 million in the bank as of March 31. Money won’t be an obstacle for Blumenthal. He is expected to be a strong fundraiser, and can put in some of his own money if necessary.

If McMahon is the nominee, the general election will be a clash between an outsider, who is running to bring a fresh perspective to the Senate, and a well-liked insider with a long record. It doesn’t necessarily help Democrats that Simmons has so aggressively taken on professional wrestling because it means that the issue will be pretty thoroughly aired by the general election, leaving them with few new lines of attack against McMahon. The financial playing field will certainly be level, which would give Republicans a shot here.

Not surprisingly, Blumenthal begins the race with a substantial advantage over all three Republicans. In the March Quinnipiac poll, he was ahead of McMahon, 61 percent to 28 percent; led Simmons, 62 percent to 26 percent; and bested Schiff, 64 percent to 21 percent. It is worth noting that all three Republicans are still building their name identification.

Democrats certainly start this race with an advantage. Of the three Republicans, McMahon has the greatest potential to make this a truly competitive race. It is in the Lean Democratic column.

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For more information, contact the Linda McMahon for Senate Press Office, 860-244-2010